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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had finally been halted in a international match.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, their power, their chicanery, they secure victory.

As match day approaches where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, successful opponents have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only occasionally against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.