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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature is expected to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would serve as guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security formations instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.